American Idol: Did They Find The 'One' In Nashville?

In the long and storied history of American Idol, has a judge's (or judges') early favorite ever won? As a self-professed (and slightly pathetic) expert, I can definitively say, "no." It has never happened. In fact, 99 percent of the time, the judges have ultimately been quite surprised by the Idol America eventually picks.

So while we can all agree that 15-year-old Lauren Alaina from Rossville, Ga., has big hair and a big voice and a sweetly big personality, we can also agree that not only is this sucker far from over, but it is grossly premature for Steven Tyler or anyone else to be declaring a winner.

So there.

But let's not pull a Memento and start at the end. Let's rewind to the beginning of the hour in Nashville.

First up is Darius Thomas from Birmingham, Ala., and he is awful. But here's my new favorite thing: When Steven Tyler blinks, pauses, blinks, pauses, and then says with those magnificent lips, "Wow." Love it.

We are not just in Nashville tonight - we are not just in the Grand Old Opry - we are in the Ryman Auditorium, which is like the Graceland of the Grand Old Opry (and for the record, I've been there and it's kind of dumpy and smells a little like a wet dog).

Ryan in the voice over is throwing around the C word like crazy - Carrie Underwood. Except of course she came from Oklahoma. Ryan does not sweat the details.

We start with Christine McCaffrey from West Palm Beach. She is like a Disney Princess, if there were one that cleaned teeth. She scares the judges right away (I love the camaraderie that is forming on the judges panel - JLo braces herself against the two men). Alarmingly she sings through her nose and also through her insanity. She's a no.

Then come Rob Bolin and Chelsea Oaks and they are like the Hodgins and Angela of Idol. They fell in love, sang together, she realized he was a dweeb and dumped him, has led him on ever since, and here they are. JLo wants to reunite them, they sing together and it is lovely, they sing solo and it is lovely, and since Idol cannot resist potential drama, they are both through to Hollywood. Oh dear.

Allen Lewis from Franklin Furnace, Ohio is all tatted up and bandanna-ed and he sings Skynrd's Simple Man in a most horrific and heartfelt way. Cliches literally pour out of this man's mouth but he clearly believes each one and so good for him. Hollywood? Not so much.

Stormi Henley (with an "i" for God's sake, she swears it is on her birth certificate) was Miss Teen USA and has pictures to prove it. She is wearing a sundress and cowboy boots, which only she and actresses from Friday Night Lights can pull off, and she sings OK. Randy and Steven put her through. JLo hilariously calls her voice "small," (pot meet kettle) and oh, God, whatever. She doesn't sing worse than Lee Dewyze.

Adrienne Beasley is a black woman from Kentucky who was adopted by adorable white people, and so had somewhat of a hard time growing up on the farm. She sings beautifully and will go to Hollywood.

Kameela Merricks is 28, which makes her old, and sings horribly, which makes her bad.

Speaking of bad, there's Polina Kozhikov, Patrick Counts and LaToya "Youngique" Moore. This is called "killing time."

Jackie Wilson is also 28, which also makes her old, but she can sing. Her boyfriend is 83 and Ryan almost drops to the floor when they kiss, as he thought boyfriend was "dad."

Questionable approvals tonight are named Paul McDonald (he sang Maggie like wet spaghetti) and Jimmie Allen (I can't even remember what he sang). Better was orange-picker Danny Pate, who led the group in a singalong to Poppa Was A Rolling Stone. On playback, the judges sang more than he did.

Matt Dillard is 27 (old) and his parents have had 700 foster children, many with special needs. He is wearing a wife beater under his overalls, and one of those greasy hats like Bret Michaels wears. Plus, horrendous facial hair. He sings just like Josh Groban, which is kind of weird considering. The judges, torn, put him through.

And then Lauren Alaina closes us out, and Steven is all, "she's the ONE" except you know and I know that she isn't, because once America gets its hands on this competition, all bets are off.

Next week, Austin. They are crazy in Texas, baby.

American Idol: What is this Milwaukee?

So the show opens and I am instantly annoyed because they have reminded me that Danny Gokey came from Milwaukee. It took me two years to wipe that guy out of my memory banks and bam! here he is again. Plus, he's been working out.

But I shake it off. It's Idol baby, and Steven Tyler is funny!! J. Lo continues to glow. Randy is ... Randy.

They are doing the judges' part at the Museum of Art, which is beautiful and somehow positioned next to the Pacific Ocean. I'm not sure how that happened. Remember that first season when Randy, Paula and Simon heard Kelly Clarkson sing at the Holiday Inn? Those were some good times.

So first up is Scotty "Ears" McCreery, from Garner, N.C., and he is 16 but sings like he's 50 and owns a bar in west Texas. He is going to Hollywood. He will not win.

Joe Repka is 19, goes to the University of Toledo, and I know he can't sing because Ryan is being nice and feigning an interest in him. He is, in fact, bad. But he has a good sense of humor.

Emma Henry is a 15-year-old from Littleton, Colo., and she's one of those funky 9th graders who has 3 different colors in her hair and wears Chuck Taylors and super skinny jeans. She sings True Colors and she has a cool rasp but Randy tortures her. No worries - it's Hollywood.

Then it's time for a montage of bad, Kody and Juanita and Kamil and Kanisha and more Lady Gaga than is good for the nation in these troubled times. It is offset of course by Naima Adedapo, a gorgeous mother of two who cries at the drop of a hat. It is hard for me to relate to all this emotion, as I have never wanted something like stardom that badly. Or even to sing. Maybe just write a blog that a few folks enjoy. That's all I ask.

She sings Donny Hathaway and is fabulous and way cool. I hope she does well.

Jerome Bell is adorable, from New York City and he sings Marvin Gaye. He usually sings at bar mitzvahs, he says, but probably not Marvin. Maybe though. He sings great and JLo is all praising him and Randy hilariously jumps in with "and all the isms" even though she hadn't said a single ism, and then Steven comes back with "and none of the wisms," whatever that means but he's quick. All those drugs and the dude is still quick. Jerome goes to Hollywood.

Now starts the parade of 15-year-olds, led off by Thia Megia, who sings Mumble Mumble by Mumble. She has a nice voice, they love her and they love others in her age bracket. Hollywood is going to be crawling with chaperones, and if this keeps up there will be wall-to-wall tutors once we get to the Big Stage.

They spend an eternity on poor Nathaniel Jones, who is a Civil War re-enacter (did they have the Civil War in Wisconsin?) and by the way can't sing. But we knew that. And they knew that. This is old-school mean Idol. He sings The Lion Sleeps Tonight exactly the way I do at karaoke when we've been doing shots of Cuervo.

Mason Wilkinson, poor thing, is Hall of Fame-level bad, but not in a funny way so he can be the next William Hung or the Pants on the Ground dude. More like robs an ATM in a couple of years-bad.

Molly DeWolf Swenson has 3 names, went to Harvard, is an intern at the White House and yet is stupid enough to say the words "Monica Lewinsky." Oh, and Randy punched her in the face that morning ... by accident. And she has super model legs. Hate her. She sings Otis Redding, which all the white Harvard girls sing (does Radcliffe even still exist?) and the judges swoon. She might be my Brooke White. Not sure yet. She closes out Day 1.

Day 2, and Randy is bizarrely wearing a sweater with a giant E on it, and JLo has a musical note on her blouse. Oh dear. Haley Reinhart is making her second try after losing out in Chicago last year (Lee DeWyze, anyone remember him?). She sings Oh Darlin', and it's all bluesy and down low and she could totally be the dirty girl this season which puts her on Dr. Drew in ... carry the 2 ... 2017. Randy pretends to remember her and it's off to Hollywood.

Tiwan Strong sings great, looks great and has the most awesome extended family including a tiny aunt with a cramp in her calf. Fabulous. Ryan nearly pees his pants.

Steve Beghun is a giant accountant who has no friends and cannot open doors. He looks like Will Ferrell's big not-funny brother. But he can sing. As Steven Tyler says, he was "disturbingly great." Exactly.

There's more bad, and then there's mean bad, and then funny bad, and then mean again ... blah, blah, blah.

Scott Dangerfield could be the Clay Aiken of 2011, in that he does not look like he will sing great and then he does. Of course, Clay turned out to be the Austin Scarlett of American Idol, so fingers crossed for Scott.

Alyson Jados of Chicago is totally the Allison Iraheta of this go-round, I love this girl and I hope she doesn't turn out to be like that one who started out a rocker and ended up just a screamer, with the streak in her hair. Can't think of her name ... so many of them end up breaking my heart.

Speaking of breaking hearts, just as I was thinking that we made it through two hours with no sob stories, here comes Chris Medina, a sweet-faced pudge who wears his fiance's ring around his neck. Why, we ask? Because two years ago she was in a terrible car accident, two months before the wedding, and she had a brain injury and she is a wheelchair-bound shell of her former self. "What kind of man would I be if I left her when she needed me most?" he asks. And then he sings that great song my kids love, about the best part of me was always you, and of course I am crying because damn this show and it's Gokeyisms. Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in. Cut that boy's hair and put him in a better shirt and just call him the winner now.

Thursday night, Nashville. Whew.

American Idol: Does Anyone Speak Creole?

Night 2 of Season 10 and we are in New Orleans, where we were in Season 4 (Bo Bice anyone?) when Ryan was young and thin and still ... human.

Speaking of human, I think Jennifer Lopez is not. I think she is from that planet that the show V is about, and that she is the alien charged with blinding the human race with her glowing dewy skin and ridiculous thick hair and outrageously long legs. While we are staring at all that (and I bet she smells really good too, you can always just tell) the rest of her species is bombing the crap out of the White House and annihilating Manhattan. Just a theory.

Anyway, the show is mercifully just an hour tonight, so we race through the Big Easy cliches and get right to Jordan Dorsey, music teacher.

The emphasis in the first two shows is definitely on the good singers, and if they happen to have an awesome sob story attached, well, as Jeff Buckley would say, Hallelujah. Jordan is a good singer who teaches piano to adorable tykes, and he sings Over the Rainbow perfectly and he is so going to Hollywood.

Then comes Sarah Sellers from Texas, she of the red dress and hot booties and librarian glasses and Steven Tyler lips. She knocks them out with subtlety. Bravo. Like her.

Jovany is Cuban, and a shipbuilder, and Snookie might call him gorilla juice. He is bursting out of his dress shirt. He will be the first one sacrificed to JLo's aliens. They like him and then the worst thing ever in the history of American Idol - and yes, that includes Kevin Covais - happens: Randy Jackson shows us his belly. Thank goodness the children were already in bed.

Speaking of Randy, young Jacqueline arrives with his high school yearbook, in which he looks like Linc from Mod Squad, and her uncle was his football coach and there's a reunion. She sings, I'll Stand By You, and they put her through. She won't last though. She's pretty in a Katherine McPhee way.

Then comes Brett, and I swear if I were a cynic I'd think Idol combed the south looking for this boy, he is Glee's Kurt come to AI, all Carrot Top hair and bad skin. He's the most outcast of all the outcasts, he's only 16, and if I did not know they had taped this long before Chris Colfer's Golden Globes speech last Sunday, I'd accuse them of plagiarism. But guess what? He can really truly sing. Oh, and guess who he sings? Freddie Mercury. Yeah, I'm sure that was his idea.

Gabriel has won Steven Tyler lookalike contests but to me he is Spencer from iCarly. He sings Bad Romance. Just like Spencer would've.

And then Jacee comes in, and I swear this has turned into a Very Special Blossom, because he's pudgy and round faced and 15-but-looks-12. And the judges tease him a little. Oh yeah? He's got some Otis Redding for them. Oh, and he sings like an angel. From heaven. Hello Hollywood.

Speaking of after school specials, our last contestant, Paris, is a lovely 23 year old single mother who went ahead with her pregnancy at 18 even though the doctors told her the baby had a birth defect. Mom can sing, little girl is adorable, JLo weeps (but I think the tears are a signal for the aliens to load up the ships) and we're done. 37 hopefuls added to Wednesday night's 54, and next week - I am not making this up - Milwaukee.

American Idol: Tenth Time's A Charm

With all the changes that American Idol went through between its ninth and its 10th seasons, one thing was perfectly clear after Wednesday night's premiere: They still love the montage.

So we open, of course, with the Summer of 2010 montage, the barrage of press about who would replace Simon and Ellen and Kara, and OMG it's Steven Tyler and Jennifer Lopez joining Randy Jackson at the judges' table (and really, Ryan must get so steamed that it's all about them in the voice over, because he knows, just like he knows we know, that he is the engine that drives this Titanic). But wait, who's that skinny guy with the hat? Oh, it's record producer Jimmy Iovine, he has replaced the crypt keeper Clive Davis (thank goodness for that really, if nothing else) and aren't we ready to just burn down this Idol house ...

In the intro JLo says she is doing this because she can change someone's life - as opposed to, you know, Habitat for Humanity or something - and Steven Tyler inexplicably wants to find the Janis Joplin of the 21st century. Because that worked out so well for Janis.

And the first auditions are in Jersey City, N.J., which may or may not be a metaphor for the season, only time will tell. The inevitable Jersey Shore shenanigans ensue.

Up first is Rachel, who crapped out in Hollywood in Season 6, which I think is when Jordin Sparks won, or maybe Robin Sparkles, I get them confused. Anyway, JLo says she remembers her ... as if, but the girl buys it, and she sings and it's good and she's through.

The next boy is Caleb and he sings this great bluesy song and Steven Tyler loses his mind and I am declaring right now my love for Steven Tyler. Dude is funny. And sharp. Just a tad less of that Aerosmith scream, and we'll be perfect.

Then there's Kenzie, she's 15 - new rule - and she's through and adorable in her gladiator sandals. Then the first bad one, a poor thing named Achille with a heavy accent and a tin ear. JLo demonstrates her physical inability to say the word "no," which finally explains how she ended up married to Marc Anthony.

Then Tiffany the JLo stalker cries, but she's actually good, and Steven Tyler makes me laugh out loud.

Robbie Rosen has this long involved story about being in a wheelchair when he was little - God, I hate when they do this and there is a ton of it tonight - but now that he's 16 (and mad about the new 15-year-old rule) it turns out he's the Jewish Paul McCartney with a hint of Kris Allen and he's through. Of course none of this really matters because history has taught us that we never see the eventual winner in these clips.

Ashley from Springfield, Mass., is very, very caffeinated, she may have been the beta tester for that new size at Starbuck's, and while she is the exact kind of contestant that I know I will grow to despise, I root for her here and my 12-year-old declares her the favorite. Ashley sings Thoroughly Modern Millie on crank, weeps and sobs and falls to her knees, and wants pop to get Liza Minelli. The judges are so confused that they put her through, and Steven Tyler stands and vows to mold her into ... I'm not sure what just happened, but I sense a Siobhan Magnus sprouting before our eyes.

Victoria Huggens is helium-level cute, and at 16 she should probably just put Dr. Drew on her speed dial right now, because this sweet thing will be eaten alive by this show.

Melinda from Kosovo (wheelchair, refugee, seriously Idol?) sings Alicia Keyes because we've never heard that before, and gets through. Devyn the singing waitress will go to Hollywood but only if she promises to buy some eyeliner and a hair flattener. Oh, and did you know that Briell from Staten Island's dad had throat cancer? It's like a telethon here.

But we haven't seen anything yet (except for the weird Japanese guy who unfortunately led us into the Party in the USA montage) because they saved Travis from the Bronx for last. His whole family lived in a shelter where people set up memorials outside for those gunned down in the streets. You think you've got it tough, Randy? Anyway, he sings Eleanor Rigby really annoyingly and Steven makes him sing something else (Jason Mraz) and guess what? He's through and everyone cries. Except me, because I've seen all this before.

So, Idol's back, and in some ways it's different (a confident, alpha-dog-like Randy Jackson) and in other ways it's the same old ball and chain we come home to every night. But I like Steven Tyler, and I don't hate JLo. So we'll see ...