American Idol: Did They Find The 'One' In Nashville?

In the long and storied history of American Idol, has a judge's (or judges') early favorite ever won? As a self-professed (and slightly pathetic) expert, I can definitively say, "no." It has never happened. In fact, 99 percent of the time, the judges have ultimately been quite surprised by the Idol America eventually picks.

So while we can all agree that 15-year-old Lauren Alaina from Rossville, Ga., has big hair and a big voice and a sweetly big personality, we can also agree that not only is this sucker far from over, but it is grossly premature for Steven Tyler or anyone else to be declaring a winner.

So there.

But let's not pull a Memento and start at the end. Let's rewind to the beginning of the hour in Nashville.

First up is Darius Thomas from Birmingham, Ala., and he is awful. But here's my new favorite thing: When Steven Tyler blinks, pauses, blinks, pauses, and then says with those magnificent lips, "Wow." Love it.

We are not just in Nashville tonight - we are not just in the Grand Old Opry - we are in the Ryman Auditorium, which is like the Graceland of the Grand Old Opry (and for the record, I've been there and it's kind of dumpy and smells a little like a wet dog).

Ryan in the voice over is throwing around the C word like crazy - Carrie Underwood. Except of course she came from Oklahoma. Ryan does not sweat the details.

We start with Christine McCaffrey from West Palm Beach. She is like a Disney Princess, if there were one that cleaned teeth. She scares the judges right away (I love the camaraderie that is forming on the judges panel - JLo braces herself against the two men). Alarmingly she sings through her nose and also through her insanity. She's a no.

Then come Rob Bolin and Chelsea Oaks and they are like the Hodgins and Angela of Idol. They fell in love, sang together, she realized he was a dweeb and dumped him, has led him on ever since, and here they are. JLo wants to reunite them, they sing together and it is lovely, they sing solo and it is lovely, and since Idol cannot resist potential drama, they are both through to Hollywood. Oh dear.

Allen Lewis from Franklin Furnace, Ohio is all tatted up and bandanna-ed and he sings Skynrd's Simple Man in a most horrific and heartfelt way. Cliches literally pour out of this man's mouth but he clearly believes each one and so good for him. Hollywood? Not so much.

Stormi Henley (with an "i" for God's sake, she swears it is on her birth certificate) was Miss Teen USA and has pictures to prove it. She is wearing a sundress and cowboy boots, which only she and actresses from Friday Night Lights can pull off, and she sings OK. Randy and Steven put her through. JLo hilariously calls her voice "small," (pot meet kettle) and oh, God, whatever. She doesn't sing worse than Lee Dewyze.

Adrienne Beasley is a black woman from Kentucky who was adopted by adorable white people, and so had somewhat of a hard time growing up on the farm. She sings beautifully and will go to Hollywood.

Kameela Merricks is 28, which makes her old, and sings horribly, which makes her bad.

Speaking of bad, there's Polina Kozhikov, Patrick Counts and LaToya "Youngique" Moore. This is called "killing time."

Jackie Wilson is also 28, which also makes her old, but she can sing. Her boyfriend is 83 and Ryan almost drops to the floor when they kiss, as he thought boyfriend was "dad."

Questionable approvals tonight are named Paul McDonald (he sang Maggie like wet spaghetti) and Jimmie Allen (I can't even remember what he sang). Better was orange-picker Danny Pate, who led the group in a singalong to Poppa Was A Rolling Stone. On playback, the judges sang more than he did.

Matt Dillard is 27 (old) and his parents have had 700 foster children, many with special needs. He is wearing a wife beater under his overalls, and one of those greasy hats like Bret Michaels wears. Plus, horrendous facial hair. He sings just like Josh Groban, which is kind of weird considering. The judges, torn, put him through.

And then Lauren Alaina closes us out, and Steven is all, "she's the ONE" except you know and I know that she isn't, because once America gets its hands on this competition, all bets are off.

Next week, Austin. They are crazy in Texas, baby.